Thaksin Looms in Thai Vote as Yingluck Lead Unsettles Investors

Left motherless at a young age, Yingluck Shinawatra says her eldest brother became like a parent to her. From college in the U.S., to running Thailand ’s biggest mobile phone company and now seeking to become prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra guided her life.

Just how much the 61-year-old exiled former leader continues to do so is a growing risk for investors as Yingluck, 43, leads in polls before July 3 elections. Concern a victory would reignite the political conflict that has racked the country and prompt a coup like that which toppled her brother in 2006 has helped drive more than $1 billion in overseas money from Thai stocks since she emerged as a candidate last month.

“He’s the one who took care of me and helped in terms of education and teaching me on the management style,” Yingluck said in a June 8 interview conducted in English at a Bangkok slum, where hundreds of supporters thronged around her. She described Thaksin as her “second father,” while adding that when it comes to leading the country, “I will be myself.”

The youngest of Thaksin’s eight siblings, Yingluck has spent the past month introducing herself to voters after being picked by the pro-Thaksin Pheu Thai party on May 16 to challenge Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrats. As Thailand’s first female leader, Yingluck would inherit inflation at a 32-month high and a political divide that has seen parts of Bangkok consumed by clashes leaving more than 100 killed since 2007, and the seizure of its international airport by protesters.

At the center of the political divisions in Thailand that have seen 10 military takeovers since absolute monarchy ended in 1932 are ethnic and social segmentation, with the poorer north and northeast supporting Thaksin’s group. The benchmark SET index of stocks has dropped the past four weeks, the longest losing streak since 2008, as concern escalated that violence may accompany the aftermath of the vote.

The baht fell 0.2 percent to 30.59 per dollar as of 11:02 a.m. local time today and earlier touched 30.62, the weakest level since March 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The baht has weakened almost 1 percent in the past month, the worst performer among 10 major currencies in Asia excluding the yen.

A veteran corporate executive in the Shinawatra family’s business group, Yingluck’s lack of political experience means Thaksin will likely continue to steer the party from abroad, where he’s lived since fleeing a two-year prison term for abuse of power in a 2008 court ruling, analysts said.

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